Oxford Economical Analyzing.......

GCIOSGF Newsletter 會訊:

掌握最新資訊動態，於世界各大主體接軌，創新，競技 溝通，交流。友誼 Grasp the latest information trends, connect with the world's major players, innovate, compete, communicate and exchange. friendship. PS：為保護與會人權利,本會視訊會議內容不公開。To protect the rights of participants , the content of our video conference is not public. 

 Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• We have nudged up our global GDP growth forecast for 2022 very slightly from 3.0% to 3.1%, but this only reverses a fraction of the downgrades in recent months. By contrast, we have downgraded next year’s forecast by 0.1pp to 3.0%.
• Global GDP growth in Q2 is likely to have been lacklustre for a second-quarter running as a result of disruptions due to the Ukraine war, the real income squeeze on households and Covid-related activity restrictions in China.
• Nonetheless, we remain confident that the growth picture will improve in the second half of the year.