Mixed views on global economic outlook amid rising inflation and volatile markets
From UN
The global macroeconomic picture continues to evolve. On 15 June, the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, hiked its main policy rate by 0.75 percentage points—its largest increase in 28 years. The rate hike was higher than had been expected. Since the US consumer price inflation rate is increasingly likely to remain high as its core rate reached 6.0 per cent in May, the US central bank is expected to raise the policy rates further in the coming months. Soon after, the Swiss National Bank raised its policy interest rate for the first time in 15 years amid mounting inflation expectations, despite the core inflation still standing at 1.7 per cent in May. The European Central Bank has also announced its intention to raise its policy rate in July as the euro area’s core inflation reached 3.8 per cent in May.
Since February, the successive monetary tightening measures in the United States have already profoundly impacted developing countries’ monetary policy stances. By June 2022, 37 developing country central banks began monetary tightening, in addition to a few countries—such as Brazil—that had already entered the tightening cycle last year. More countries, particularly in Africa, are expected to enter a monetary tightening phase following the expected policy rate hike of the European Central Bank. As of June 2022, only a few countries, mainly in East and Southeast Asia, including China, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, have yet to announce their intention to tighten their monetary policy stances.
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