2022年3月25日 星期五

The issue of the economy

GCIOSGF 會訊:
The opinion of the economist .
The members of GCIOSGF have studied from them .
The economic outlook for 2022 and 2023 in the United States is good, though inflation will remain high and storm clouds grow in later years.

The war in Ukraine raged with uncertain outcomes while this forecast was prepared. The war will play only a small role in the American economy—unless it really turns into World War III, which doesn’t seem likely.

A reporter recently asked, “What’s the most important economic statistic for business leaders to follow in 2022?” It is not an economic statistic; it’s Covid. The best working assumption for an economic forecast is that Covid has less impact, thanks to vaccinations and past infections. Assume no more lockdowns and people will dine out, travel and go to concerts. But keep your fingers crossed, as new variants are quite possible.

Economic growth will be pushed up by past stimulus, both fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus. No additional major stimulus will come this year, but stimulus always works with time lags. So this year’s economy is mostly driven by past stimulus. 

 

沒有留言:

張貼留言

gciosgf大中華留學生全球總會

歷史總是選擇正確的一方:

 GCIOSGF Newsletter會訊: 冷靜看關稅 Host:WP Speaker: Cn O Edit: OF  近期,美國對全球多地加徵“對等關稅”,可以說是向全世界宣戰。甚至在當地時間,4月15日,對華增收關稅,最高可達245%。 更喪心病狂的是,美國竟對從不設關稅的...